MURLI DEORA,MUKESH AMBANI,MYANMAR

The Petroleum Ministry under Murli Deora seems to be more interested in the dispute between Mukesh and Anil Ambani than to even think about other vital energy security issues affecting India. The following case involving Mynamar Yetagon field shows how our Oil ministry sleeps over issues when it involves anyone remotely connected to USA. Indian Media would have made a hue and cry when China scores over India but not when other countries in the region make a sucker of India. Our Media is so obsessed with Kareena Kapoor or tantrums of Shaoib Akhthar that it has not bothered about another vital problem which is building up in our neighborhood. I am talking about the troop buildup at Myanmar/Bangladesh border especially at the trijunction of these two countries with India.

According to different sources on the border, Myanmar has deployed nine military battalions in its border with Bangladesh. They were deployed last Friday along the border from Maungdaw to Paletwa. They are: Light Battalions 55 and 20, and Light Infantry Battalions (LIB) 234, 263, 344, 233, 289 and 538.

The LIB 538 based originally in Rathidaung has been shifted to the Paletwa border and posted at the triangular position facing Bangladesh and India borders.Bangladesh on its part has moved 3 brigades to the Myanmarese border. The root cause is the effort by Myanmar to push 10,000 Rohingya Muslims who have crossed into its territory from Bangladesh back into Bangladesh. China is supporting Myanmar covertly as it has enormous economic stake in Myanmar.What about India? Does Indian media care for the stories affecting its security vitaly. In the last 6 months our trade with SriLanka has shrunk by half from its heady growth of 10% after the FTA . Does even pink papers bother about these?

Thai and Japanese interests snatch a contract out from under the nose of India's Larsen & Toubro

Petronas, Malaysia's state-owned energy company, appears to have caved in to Thai and Japanese interests over a contract to build a platform worth up to US$190 million to compress gas in Burma's Yetagon field, freezing out the Indian energy giant Larsen & Toubro.

Informed industry sources in Malaysia told Asia Sentinel that Petronas Carigali, the Petronas unit holding a wet gas franchise in Burma's Yetagun field, had earlier disqualified Thai Nippon Steel because the bid by the company, a subsidiary of Japan's Nippon Steel, contained a conditional clause limiting liability in the event of losses, but ultimately gave in under pressure from the Thais.

"This creates a problem because now the end-users of the products can dictate how and to whom sub-contracts are awarded," the souorce said. "Competitive bidding is thrown out the window and Petronas and the (Malaysian) Ministry of Finance can end up paying more just to please the Thais."

Besides the liability clause, there were other concerns. Prior to the Yetagun bid, Thai Nippon Steel had never built a full gas compressor platform, which compresses gas so that it can be pumped to storage tanks at lower volumes, although it has built other components for gas fields in the area. Volume is critical so high compression is required. Thai Nippon Steel's bid, at US$120 million, was some 30 percent below internal estimates provided by Petronas's consultants, and wasn't enough to cover the cost of steel and other materials.

The other contactors bid between US$160 and US$190 million. In addition to Larsen & Toubro, the other bidders were Hyundai Heavy Industries of South Korea, SMOE, a subsidiary of Singapore's Sembawang Marine Industries, Sime Darby Bhd and Kencana Bhd, both of Malaysia.
Petronas, the source said, usually awards turnkey construction contracts to its own licensed contractors. However, because the project is outside of Malaysia and because no fabrication facility exists in Burma, Petronas turned to the outside companies.

Petronas is said to have disqualified Thai Nippon from bidding because of the limitation on liability, making Larsen & Toubro, a US$8.5 billion technology, engineering and construction group, the front-runner. But, the source said, when Thai Nippon learned they had been disqualified, they promptly dropped all conditions, which was not allowed under the bid rules. It is not permissible to change the bid after the deadline.

Petronas then recommended Larsen & Toubro to Malaysia's Finance Ministry. To counter this, Thai Nippon brought in PPT Public Co of Thailand, the end user which also owns the rights to 19.32 percent of the gas in the tract along with Nippon Oil of Japan, which owns another 19.32 percent, to lobby.

Despite being aware that the Thai Nippon Steel bid was below material cost, the source said, Petronas caved in from the pressure. Petronas, the source said, did so without telling the Burmese ministry after the state-owned PTT of Thailand pressured it to do so.

"MOGE (the Burmese energy ministry) is in the dark about this," the source said. The Burmese junta is highly dependent on gas exports, which account for as much as 40 percent of the country's export income. Very little of the funds are believed to be distributed to the government. Rather ,large amounts of export earnings are believed to go into the pockets of the generals.

The project, which is to sit in water at a depth of about 100 meters, includes 6,150-metric ton topsides in three modules for the platform, which are to be built by Thai Nippon Steel in Thailand, while the 4,650-ton steel jacket will be fabricated by a subsidiary of Nippon Steel Batam Island. A 100-meter bridge weighing 760 tons will connect the compression platform to the Yetagun-B facility, according to Upstream, the international oil and gas publication.

Production from the rich Yetagun field, which lies in the Gulf of Martaban, an arm of the Andaman Sea in the southern part of Burma, is expected to average 400 million cubic feet per day of gas and 10,220 barrels per day of condensate. Average output in 2008 was 391 MMcfd of gas and 10,817 bpd of oil, the newspaper said.

GLOBAL MELTDOWN is good for me

Global meltdown,Pink slips,Stocks stumbling,Real estate prices crashing,Offshore tax evasion, Fae west, Fanny Mae ,AIG ,G20 summit, bailout etc etc , I can go on and on about various other financial terms which has affected the Rich and powerful especially the USA.I have read somewhere that a good economist is the one who foresees the good and bad of visible economy.This comes through experience and foresight.
It is said Napoleon believed in "PUBLIC WORKS" and employing labour. So he made them dig ditches and then asked them to fill them and paid them.We see this happening in most of our Indian cities where modern infrastructure is created in a continuous manner by making and breaking and making again!!!
Being a a low middle class Indian with Monthly pension of Rupees 21,800/-($500/- per month) to be exact after the recent pay commission hike all this high finance is mambo jumbo. I have my own flat, a car and some additional income from some fixed income securities in Government banks.So when this meltdown has brought down the cost of a flat panel full HDTV to rupees 38000/- with dynamic contrast ratio of 50,000:1 which used to cost almost 1 lakh i was thrilled.Even Sony Bravia full HD is available for Rs.50,000/-A camcorder which used to cost Rs.25,000 or more is now available for even Rs.14,000/-After reading David Progues column in NY times i know the quality of pictures is related to sensor and i know now CCD sensor is junk in Japan and CMOS is the in thing.Laptops which used to cost nearly 1 lakh are now costing only Rs.40,000/- Some are available for even Rs.20,000/- .Camera Mega pixels have grown to 14 with corresponding decrease in prices while 8.1 mega pixels are available in mobiles!!!Imported Malaysian sofa sets are now available for even 18,000/- which used to cost 40,000 and more. Full colour scan,copy,fax all in one printers cost only rupees 3000/-.Even shirts(branded) are now costing only Rs.250/- and good pants are available for Rs.500/-
Cooking oil costs only Rs.40/- per litre which used to cost Rs.80/- so are the other items of daily consumption.Plastic items are
making women rush to every sale announced by the malls.We were thinking of disposing off our old fridge and get a new one and
we were getting exchange offer of Rs.2000/- for our old fridge.But my wife has become so generous with the prices of new fridge dropping to 19,000/- from nearly 30,000/- she decided to gift the old one to the maid!!Even giant side opening fridges are available for Rs.50,000/-
Prices of airfares to Delhi from Bangalore has dropped to nearly Rs.2500/- from 8000/-Even European holidays which used to cost all inclusive nearly Rs.2,000,00/- is now available for Rs.90,000/-! for those who can afford that. People who were thinking of buying houses are now getting into the act especially those like me who wanted to settle in Bangalore.
So on the whole this global meltdown has been great for me and others who are middle class and lower. Then who is it affecting? May be Ambanies and Mallayas and those of FICCI and CII. So who bothers?
As USA is printing nearly 2 Trillion dollars and giving it to its banks and Big cats of Industry as bail out, the Chinese are jittery as finally they will be getting this paper for exporting their goods and labor.Their foreign exchange holding may rise but the underlying problem of inability of US to export anything worthwhile to China, except their planes is going to exasperate this problem.Unfortunately China does not buy US arms. So US has to create conditions for export of its arms.Pakistani Army trained Taliban are doing just that for India while North Koreans are doing it for Japan and south Korea. SDR like new currency was raised at
G20 but died down.
I know Manmohan/Chidambaram could not have asked for more during the coming election with inflation almost dropping to zero without much of their efforts. Even opposition BJP is forced to go to Hindutva instead of price rise which used to be a common whipping boy all these years. Personally i would love this Global meltdown to continue as far as possible. Even Bangladesh's cotton and exports are booming as also our car exports.I think NANO is coming at the right time. REVA also should make its mark with aggressive research and cost cutting.It is the future.Our poor know how to survive and i hope our rich also learn from this to innovate, go to new nations,capture new markets and make India a leaner tougher nation.
My only regret is that i blew off Rs.60,000/- on my desktop(only 2 years back) which looks like a ugly junk now when i see that sleek Appledesktop they show off at Forum mall in Bangalore.Now i know Quad processor is the in thing while dual core,core duo are all junk.
By the way i purposely dropped that old yera glass set and accepted scolding from my wife.I really liked that luminarc glass set of six for only Rs.100/- which they were selling at the mall.Men have a natural inclination to go for bargains whether made by foreigners or by better machines.Already Chinese touch screen mobiles are being prohibited in the guise that they do not conform to 16digit IMEI Number.How much long this good times is going to last i do not know but i am going to enjoy as long it lasts even though my wife scolds me for bringing the trash.

"""There are two consequences in history: one immediate and instantaneously recognized; the other distant and unperceived at first. These consequences often contradict each other; the former come from our short-run wisdom, the latter from long-run wisdom. The providential event appears after the human event. Behind men rises God. Deny as much as you wish the Supreme Wisdom, do not believe in its action, dispute over words, call what the common man calls Providence "the force of circumstances" or "reason"; but look at the end of an accomplished fact, and you will see that it has always produced the opposite of what was expected when it has not been founded from the first on morality and justice."""
(Chateaubriand, Memoirs from beyond the Tomb
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told Congress that the U.S. would "launch a new, initiative to address prudential supervision, tax havens, and money laundering issues in weakly regulated jurisdictions." He said, "President Obama will underscore in London on Apr. 2 at the Leaders’ Summit the imperative of raising standards across the globe and encouraging a race to the top rather than a race to the bottom"
But top bankers of America met President Obama and gave him the red line.Former chairman of SEC Arthur Levitt and now with Carlyle group said" It is terribly important that an environment of consensus replace polarization of recent times". They went out of their way to emphasize their hostility to any regulation that even smells of GLASS-STEAGALL like separating investment banking from commercial banking.
We know the bailout is "not founded on morality and justice" and bound to fail.
Meanwhile we middle class Indians should learn to enjoy the bargains.

OBAMA'S SURGE IN AFGHANISTAN/ An INDIAN view of Opium trade

AN AFGHAN SURGE BY OBAMA/ An Indian view of Opium trade.
As America is retreating( so called surge is basically asking for fig leaf before the exit as in Iraq) , there is tremendous amount of churning going on in Afghanistan. This was evident to everyone for sometime .When PresidentKarzai desperately wanted Mullah Omar to accept his offer of safe passage was the first sign and also when Saudis hosted the conference in Mecca. Why such importance to this tiny country whose people live in caves mostly.TheJihadies have already gone into the caves of Wazirstan .Then Why? It is the poppy and heroin trade which has come back into life after the NATO forces took over the country from Taliban. Taliban who not only enforced Sharia but also other stringent Islamic conditions on the people ensured that poppy was not cultivated at all.Though this infuriated the ordinary Afghans they enforced it ruthlessly.This also ensured the vanquishing of Drug Mafia run by Drug lords like GeneralDostum,Ishmeil Khan etc etc.When ISAF took over, it opened the flood gates of Freedom of media,personal liberty but also to grow poppy.Initially it ensured the ordinary Afghans were happy with money which came from this trade .TheISI through TALIBAN also did not abolish this trade but used it to subvert the central rule of Karzai who was once an ISI asset.
US winked at this as long it was supporting Pakistani army and ISI but not affecting its global interest in Pain killers market in Europe.But ISI is no fool as can be seen by its reach in subverting Indian police and NCB officials and pushing high grade Heroin into India.It thinks subverting Indian elite through heroin and other poppy drugs is as effective as terrorist attack against India.As the global prices for Heroin crash in European market, CIA is waking up to face the challenge of protecting its market in Europe and USA.
One must know Iran/contra scandal and how drug money played an important point of that scandal or operation by Oliver North of CIA.
Again General Noreiga and his connection to CIA and drug cartels is something everyone knows.
But the connection between ISI and CIA through drug money is not much known as it is intricately linked to jihadi terrorism which gets more media space.The question is ISI CANNOT SURVIVE AS AN INSTITUTION WITHOUT THIS OXYGEN from DRUG TRADE.
Every one knows about poppy cultivation and how it is used in producing Opium and its illegal derivatives Heroin and Cocaine.But few know about CODEINE AND MORPHINE the legal pain killers are also made from opium.Legal pain killers are consumed by only SIX countries in Europe.The market is of course controlled by genuine Drug manufacturers. But the cost is linked to illegal opium production as very few countries produce legit opium. Turkey and India are some of the leading legit producers.
The cost of production also is a factor.
1 Kg of Morphine is produced for $ 56 in Australia
1 Kg of Morphine is produced for $160 in India
1 Kg of Morphine is produced for $ 450/- in Afghanistan.
The precursor chemicals like Ascetic an-hydride and others and their smuggling also are a factor in this trade.

Again HAWALA in Afghanistan is controlled by poppy induced illegal money. One finds the hawala centers are the same which also produce illegal opium. Helmand is the Hqtrs of both Illegal opium and hawala trade.The drug and hawala route are also same.
1.Helmand- Pakistan- Iran
2.Herat-Iran
3.Faizabad(Badsha Khan province-Tajikistan-Pakistan-China.
93% of World's Illegal opium is grown in Afghanistan.Out of which 70% is grown in Helmand.Again a small border town in Helmand bordering Pakistan called Baramcha is the focal point of all the illegal trade in opium and Hawala.The world's intelligence agencies have their meeting point in this small but prosperous town.
The total economy of Afghanistan is 7.8 Billion US dollars. While illegal opium trade is more than 5 Billion US dollars!!!Now one can understand how important is drug trade is to Afghanistan and also to Jihadies and also to ISI.

TALIBAN just impose a small 10% of tax on opium produced in areas which they control and one can easily imagine the money they control and why Pakistan is crying hoarse about the recent drone attacks. When one sees that Pakistan as a nation got only 4.5 billion US dollars from IMF, the money which Taliban/ISI axis are controlling in Afghanistan is mind blogging. But USA must be aware of this and allowed it. UK is in contrary policy option is due to their posting inHelmand where 2 para of UK just provide security to poppy crops of Afghan farmers for some consideration must be.!!!UK is the nation which indulged in opium war with China during 18th century.It knows how to make profit in every situation. UK is growing recently poppy at DIDCOT county in UK. Macfarlan Smith a pharma company is given the license to produce the poppy. Of course our foreign policy mandarins knew anything about this poppy /pharma connection in UK is antibody's guess because they were surprised at Millibands outburst. Canada is another country which is facing the problem of seduction of Drug money on its soldiers and CONTRACTORS like Compass Integrated Security solutions who are even blamed for death of a Canadian soldier.
Taliban are able to completely ignore or reduce taxes on non/opium trade in the area they control as long as one pays 10% tax on the opium produced and thereby winning the hearts and minds of ordinary farmers. So a reduction in cultivation will force them to increase the non/poppy tax base. Increase in opium production is a sort of vested interest created in Taliban by US andISI through their drug lords. But Taliban have been very clever .They have built a significant buffer stock of the crop and so any reduction in cultivated area will only add to the price increase , which they can exploit.
Saudi funding for insurgency has significantly reduced to TALIBAN who have no ISI connection.So it is Drug money which is actually fuelling the insurgency and economy of Afghanistan and also FATA/WAZIRSTAN.Then what is the game plan of
Obama administration in inviting the following for his inauguration.
1.Gul Agha Sherzai
2.Dr.Ashraff Ghani Ahmedzai
3.Ali Ahmed Jalali
4.Abudullah Abdullah, ex foreign minister from northern alliance.
He is trying to do what President Reagan did by inviting Gulbudin Heketmayer to his ranch even though he was known as the warlord who threw acid on faces of Kabul university girls.Why he is trying to replaceKarzai with one of these war lords? These guys are not angels.The reason is DRUG TRADE AND DRUG MONEY which made even Zilmay Khalizad (ex American Ambassador to UN) salivating for the job.
What India should look for in this scenario?
1.India must look at the surge of US forces and its deployment.Whether it is trying to stop the poppy cultivation or trying to act as a protector of Afghan farmers doing the cultivation?
2.Whether any effort is being made to stop the 10% tax which Taliban are imposing on behalf of ISI?
3. What type of new war lords are being created and what are they being asked to do?
4.Whether Drone attacks are being stopped inside Pakistan as demanded by Pakistan and Turkey.
5.Whether HAWALA is being routed through Peshawar or through Herat?
6.What happens to GITMO detainees ( who were actually drug lords caught during the 2001 war)who are going
to be released?
7.NATO forces are supposed to thin during 2011 .Who is allowed to take over in HELMAND in the guise of a criminal war lord(not Jihadi!!!) will be the significant pointers for Indian policy.If this guy is going to be a Saudi/ISI guy then India has to be wary of USA.
8.What role Turkey is going to play in the scheme of things will also be pointer to geopolitical landscape in future.TURKEY'S full solidarity and support for PAKISTAN'S sovereignty,political independence,and territorial
integrity is known.Indian foreign policy mandarins must look at turkey's idea of Pakistan's territory.(http://www.mfa.gov.tr/pakistan---turkey-joint-statement_-ankara_-october-27-31_-2008.en
Here is major NATO MEMBER where NATO IS functioning in Afghanistan (who is not a member of NATO) WHO HAS NOT RECOGNIZED DURRAND LINE ,which is its border with Pakistan(MAJOR non/NATO ally of USA) is being given the security cover by a NATO MEMBER.I do not know what is the take of Indian foreign policy Mandarins on this issue.What is the policy of Turkey on the border between Indian and Pakistan? The recent spat betweenErdogan and Peres of Israel is one of an issue or it is Turkey effort to gain the leadership of Islamic world though it recognises Israel may be with a wink from USA.
9.The effort by ISI to rekindle KHALISTAN AGENDA among the Sikh Diaspora especially in Canada has to be watched closely.The drug money
can win any one and white Canadian politicians are no exceptions. India knows how Canadian royal Mounted police handled its Sikh assets
even though they killed nearly 400 innocent Indians through mid air bombing of Air India jet.The ex/ISI boss Lt.Gen.Javed Nasir who is controlling 150 Sikh gurudwarahs in Pakistan through PGPC is known for his suaveness with regard to use of Drug money.He violently opposed Benazir's distaste for fomenting Sikh extremism in India through ISYF( Lakhbir Rode),Wadhawan Neeta(Khalistan Zindabad force),P.S.Panjwar(KCF),Gajinder Singh(Dal Khalsa).All these guys especially Rode is being given leadership role for recruiting Sikhs in India through its agents or by reignitingAnandapur Saheb resolution through remnants of Bhindranwale's followers who are in legit mode in various political parties of Punjab.
10.The biggest threat is how this drug money is being used by Pakistan's ISI to undermine INDIAN ECONOMY which it feels is the real reason for world taking note of India.This also will suits CHINA which is not at all happy at the rejuvenation of Indian psyche after the drubbing it gave in 1962.
a)Printing and distributing fake Indian currency notes through D/COMPANY, Sikh's ISYF,HUJI(Bangladesh) along with Indian LET,JEM operatives in KERALA AND HYDERABAD.The recruitment for training of these operatives are done in Saudi Arabia,UAE etc where normally most of these expatriates work.Missing youths from these areas should be an area of prime concern for Indian security agencies.
b)Disrupting INDIAN TOURISM. Mumbai attack can be also seen as a sort of disruption of Indian tourism industry along with those attacks in Jaipur,Bangalore and attempted ones in Goa.
c)Disrupting Indian Cricket especially the IPL being a money spinner for Indian Economy.
d)Along with Satyam, the Indian money bags can be vulnerable to BLACKMAIL. There is an email circulating about Swiss bank accounts of Indian Big cats and how Swiss authorities are willing to divulge the names if asked for by Indian Government.
As General Hamid Gul commented in a recent blog about RAW. It is 24/7 war with Indian Intelligence and he is proud of his ISI waging it successfully. The bombing of Indian embassy in Kabul may be an attack on those honest middle level intelligence operatives by ISI though it may look like a terrorist act. I understand the black market rate for obtaining an Indian visa from our Kabul embassy is 300 US dollars for single day clearance while it is 200 US dollars for clearance in 4 days.This is a hefty amount for ordinary Afghans who have to travel to India for MEDICAL HELP as in this one area none can beat India in the quality of health care for the money paid. But Indian staff have to be paid well enough so that they donot indulge in petty corruption. India also should think of opening a lady Gynaecology hospital meant only for ladies in Kandahar instead of building roads which serves the interest of ISAF.