திசைகள் அரங்கு: மே மாத திசைகளில் The article by Jegadeesan on Nepal is very informative.Why the dilemma for India?The dilemma is same in Bangladesh,Bhutan,Afghanistan and ofcourse Pakistan and used to be in srilanka.Nepal has a population of 2 crores but it imported 3 crore umbrellas from china!!!!!The ruling elite in nepal ,bangladesh used to be agents for smuggling items to India which is a vast market for anything FOREIGN!!.Nepal which had an open border with India used to make use of this.As india started applying brakes; they started playing the china card.Nepal along with pakistan was instrumental in giving china the observer status in SAARC.India was forced to balance this with observer status for japan!Basically it is the stausquoist nature of indias behaviour which encourages theese small nations to play China and even Pakistan card against India.The only Hindu king who is considered an incarnation of Vishnu did not show the wisdom which our ancient sages have thought.But he has shown during the recent turmoil that he can hold his own with the help of Royal nepal Army though only in Kathmandu.But the seven party alliance which was acting as buffer during the maoist revolt was forced to join the maoists and nowvillagers have tasted power by ruling themselves without fearing the Army and bureacracy.It is very difficult to secede this power wherein the dominant castes have been paying protection money to the maoists.
China has zerosum game in all this.It openly castigated the maoists for calling themselves maoists and openly sided with dictatorship of the king.The king by defying the November agreement of sevenparty alliance with maoists(brokered by india at newdelhi) and now surrendiring to the might of people and facing an ornamental role is not going to givein easily.the threemonth ceasefire declared by maoists has to be used by the sevenparty alliance to rewrite a consitution,hold an election or atleast promise of election while holding firm against machanisations of the king is a tall order.China did a similar deal in myanmar by openly siding with the dictatorship of the Generals.It just wants the gas from Myanmar.In nepal even if it gains 1% it is a gain as India looms large in nepal.By providing arms to the royal nepalese army especially the tanks the chinese have got a foothold.india has to side with the royal nepal army which is traditionally india centric but it has to keep the feelings of VILLAGE NEPAL which is the backbone of maoists which is the emerging power.But their emergence will give fillip to our own maoists and violence associated with it as shown during the recent hijacking of trains,steamers etc has shown.But if Maoists in Nepal openly abdjure VIOLENCE and enter the democratic stream of nepal; then it will be huge gain for india.But communist china and Musharaff will not want this.they will encourage the king to sabotage the pact with sevenparty alliance and fight the maoists with their gifted arms.indian diplomacy which is always slow in these matters has to be alert.
