Saturday, December 01, 2012

Israel's loss to Hamas but Muslim brotherhood is the real Gainer

        This round of Israel/Hamas fight started with Israeli killing of Hamas military chief and Hamas retaliating with barrage of rockets. Of course as usual with complete air superiority Israel pounded Gaza with its bombs and inflicted casualties as usual in the ratio of 100:1 . Soon the chorus from the world and UN started to stop the airwar etc etc.But there was a distinct change this time.Though the Hamas was inflicted untold punishment as usual, the Israelis had to contend with nearly 1000 rockets on its soil with air raid sirens as far as back Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. In spite of Iron dome shooting down 80% of the incoming rockets for the first time Israelis in major cities like Tel Aviv etc have to goto  the bomb raid shelters for safety.This was a unique experience for many Israelis.  Entebbe, Yom kippur war,1967 war etc etc and Israel has been the David. Though the world supported the Palestinians by empty talk and also vote at UN(normally vetoed by USA) , the underlying admiration for Israel was always there amongst ordinary people.
      Though only single digit casualties it faced , the daily air raid sirens was something the Israelis could never get accustomed to as they are so used to comfort and security. With elections approaching the ruling Government of Israel wanted a face saving device to stop the fighting as the voting public are not used to this type of insecurity. Incomes Muslim brother hood led by Morsi, President of Egypt.Normally this role used to be given to the Egyptian intelligence under President Mubarak.But today with Arab spring the confident Morsi played his cards well.USA followed suit by supporting this effort  with Obama and Hillary sitting in distant Cambodia.As Hamas trusted Morsi that he will not let down their vital interests, the Sunni league of Arab money bags also stepped in.Now the deal was stitched with abject surrender by Israel that it will
1. Stop the air war
2.It will stop targeted killing of Hamas leaders
3.The blockade of Gaza will also be lifted in a phased manner
   In return Hamas has agreed to stop firing rockets into Israel.
  The most humiliating part may be that Israel is now answerable to Morsi (Muslim brother hood) for sticking to its part of the bargain while Morsi should also ensure Hamas also sticks to its part along with myriad other small factions who also fire the rockets like Islamic Jihad.
    What it has proved to the Arabs and also to the world is that Israel has lost the stomach to fight a long drawn out war.The mobilization it did for invading Gaza was an empty rhetoric.What PLO under Arafat could not achieve; the socalled terrorist organisation Hamas with covert help from Iran has achieved a sort of military parity.Israel's idea that the civilians of Gaza will rise against Hamas after the severe punishment with smart bombs near their homes which are hoarding the rockets did not work at all.
    The Military planners around the world have now to take into account the new Military doctrine of terrorist groups like Hamas which can smuggle or even manufacture home made rockets in large numbers can bring much richer nations like Israel with its sophisticated Iran dome missiles and total air superiority to talk on its terms and accept them.The blockade by Israel of Gaza is a complete failure with tunnels and may be even covert support of Egyptian intelligence the rockets are smuggled in or its manufacturing expertise  was given to the Palestinians with Mossad not knowing anything about it.Indian security planners also must take note of this new phenomenon.
    The cease fire is holding and Palestinians have won the UN vote.But is Israel going to withdraw from west bank and allow an independent Palestine? No way. Is Israel going to allow the Palestinians to return to their land.No.I feel the new regime which comes into power in Israel is going to be hawkish with more settlers and may be even more expansion.It may even use tactical nukes or similar weapon in future war.
     The Muslim brother hood under Morsi got so emboldened by this success that it has given the President dictatorial powers until a Sharia inspired constitution is written This also may trigger another sort of internal trouble in Egypt.
    The USA under Obama may say for the first time Hamas has accepted the leadership of Sunni group of Arabs instead of Iran.The money bags of Arabs who cannot even control their own extremists how can they control Palestinians?
   All in all the world can expect another round when the Israelies have mastered the art of blunting the mass rocket fire from Palestine But then Hamas knows it as well as Iran and its Arab supporters.Personally I feel tactical nuclear weapons is going to be used as a deterrent in the next round.Those  who are interested may also read my post about this issue in 2009. The link is below
.Palestenians , the eternal wailers