RETREATING AMERICA/Choice before INDIA.
When Americans elected Obama, they showed to the world that they are fed up of the policies pursued by President George Bush. In spite of Bush's failed policies in Afghanistan, Iraq :Obama could not have won the election but for the economic collapse engineered by Bush's CRONY CAPITALISTS from Femae , Fe west and Texan billionaires who control American capitalism. Obama won by a mere 4% margin and a swing of 2.1% would have given theMacain/Palin team a victory. But victory has put in place a President who believes in
human values and courageous enough to make his democratic opponents as members of his administration.He
has given a share of the pie to his opponents because he wants the team to pursue policies he wants to be
pursued by his team.
His team wants America to face up to the facts and carry out the following policy.
Obama's heart is still on the left. Moreover, his political interests argue for relegating to the trash bin of history a Bush-neocon policy of endless war until the Middle East resembles the Middle West. America cannot sustain the wars that Bush’s policy produced, nor those it promises.
To withdraw all U.S. combat brigades from Iraq within 16 months. Though the Status of Forces Agreement accepted by Iraq doubles the time Obama has to pull out, to December 2011, the American nation just want out
as soon as possible.
Whether Shia attack Sunni, or fight amongst themselves, or engage Kurds after this withdrawal is Iraq's problem.Americans just do not have the"Khaleeja" to continue.This is considered by alqueda as victory over the Americans and they are correct in this assumption though think tanks may disseminate otherwise along with American mainline media.
The consensus among American Seminarists and also UK is that victory over a resurgent Taliban with a sanctuary in Pakistan cannot be achieved without an infusion of significantly more troops. Germans,French,Koreans etc have no stomach to fight and are happy to be posted at peaceful northern Afghanistan and do drug trafficking with local drug lords. They are not willing to go to Kandahar or even Helmand to do the fighting.Escalating the war means more air strikes that have alienated the Afghan people as well as Saudi puppet President Kharzai. More Predator strikes into Pakistan will be used by ISI controlled media to whip up anti-Americanism and stage a coup when the time is ripe.What is the U.S. bottom line in Kabul for USA? Not the impossible dream of a democracy but a government committed to keeping al-Qaida out and protect their drug trade is what USA wants. Given the bloody war the Taliban have fought for seven years, they may be amenable to such an arrangement wherein they betray Alqueda with a cut in drugtrade is what UK/USA hope.
But we in India know this hope of America is a pipe dream.The running away from Iraq with a fig leaf offered by Maliki has whetted the appetite of the Alqueda fighters who are busily regrouping in Pakistan with help from LET which is given the subcontract by Pakistani army and Saudi arabia.ISI has been taken out of the loop and Pakistani GHQ has created a separate cell for this operation as the one created for Mumbai operation may be by Pakistani navy and closed down immediately.
Tehran claims its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, and the International Atomic Energy Agency has never declared it in violation of the non-proliferation treaty. Yet, the suspicion is broad and deep in Washington and Tel Aviv that Iran is hell-bent on building an atom bomb. Obama and Hillary have both said that they will not let it happen, no matter what it takes.
If war with Iran is to be averted, the new team must move swiftly to talk to Tehran and put its cards on the table. But Saudi Arabia and Pakistani army want the Americans to fight the war with Iran. Their covert army in Iran border called Junduallah has recently kidnapped 13 Iranian Frontier constabulary.They tortured them and killed them brutally just like the Jews of Nariman house in Mumbai. Iran may take revenge but US army is protecting that border a left over of Cheney policy.
If Likud’s “Bibi” Netanyahu supported by Saudis wins the Israeli election, he will push hard for U.S. air strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, and push back against any Obama deal with Tehran. With the Israeli lobby and a Jewish community that gave Barack 80 percent of its votes, plus the neocons and Evangelical right calling for strikes against Iran’s nuclear sites, would the Obama-Clinton team stand united—against war? Would Hillary, a former senator from New York who relied even more heavily than Barack on Jewish contributions and votes, stand by Obama?Americans donot want this war but Saudies are forcing them with help from unwitting Ahmedijnad.
NOW WHAT SHOULD BE INDIAN RESPONSE ESPECIALLY AFTER MUMBAI to AMERICAN RETREAT?
American retreat is real and it has to be first accepted by India. It desperately needs Allies especially to withstand the march of China and Russia and to a lesser extent Europe. It will not fight China to save Taiwan nor it will fight Pakistan or Saudi Arabia or China to save India. It is basically shown itself a wounded tiger and can get its prestige back by using Nukes only.That is the dilemma of American planners. It cannot fight a long drawn out conventional war anywhere especially Asia. Saudi Arabia and China know it as also Pakistan army and India also has to accept this fact. It leaves India with two hostile nuclear powers China and Pakistan on its border. We cannot even call Nepal as a friendly country as the recent defense cooperation agreement it has signed with China shows. China has signed defense deals with Myanmar and enforced a status quo between warring Myanmar and Bangladesh.Sri lanka,Bhutan also are wary of India and they also look to China for major support and the SriLankan Army chief's recent comment shows how our politicians are looked upon in our neighboring countries not only by our foreign office mandarins. Our response in Afghanistan should be one of active support toISAF by deploying our forces instead of wasting money on so called road building which gets blown up anyway. The bluff by Pakistan army which is covertly supported by Saudiarabia has to be called now instead of waiting for American withdrawal from Afghanistan.Ghawri,Babur,Ghazni ,Taimur and even Alexander all came through Khyber after crossing Hindukush to invade India because Indian rulers and population are perceived to be physically and mentally weak in fighting though large in numbers. A small determined cunning fighter always won over Indian rulers.
The recent attack in Mumbai is shown as one in which 10 guys could keep the elite OSCAR force of Indian Navy and later NSG commandos, what to talk of ATS of mumbai police at bay for 62 hours in full public view. A very successful covert as well as psychological operation from the view point of the perpetrators of the attack. AlreadyKarzai started talking about withdrawal of American forces ( he even talked about shooting down American planes!!!) just because one mistaken bombing by NATO which killed 40 civilians.He is talking because of Saudiarabia. The Mumbai attack is a warning message to Obama about his idea of the right war during his campaign. Basically this Mumbai attack is diverting his agenda from war in Afghanistan to one of solving Kashmir dispute (which is supposed to be the root cause of Pakistani terrorism!!!) by cleverly hiding the very facet of Islamic jihad which is enshrined in its holy book. We knewMusharaff was directing the Army during Kargil (in spite of Nawaz Sheriff being the elected civlian leader) but Zardari has much lower clout than Nawaz . Kiyani and GHQ are in the background doing all the dirty work while Zardari and Gillani face the international flak. Pakistani Army and ISI are portrayed as the pillars of Pakistani nation with clever media management. Pakistan Muslim league(Q) is the one which is controlling thePak media with Sherry rehman doing very good media management with the likes of Marvi memon,Shereen Mazari etc while it is Maleeha Lodhi who works on CIA's Bruce Reidel. Even Musharaff in London is playing his part there. His telling comment that if Pakistani army has continued their shadow boxing with Taliban inFATA, Pakistan would not hace faced international flak for Mumbai attack!!! The ONLY positive aspect of the whole Mumbai episode is that India will not TALK TO TERRORISTS OR HOSTAGE TAKERS even if that involves rich and powerful. This message has gone to even theZAKA force of Israel who are not very happy about it.
Iran is another area of immediate concern to us if we have to confront the Black goggled princes of Saudi arabia with American wives. Iran is signatory to NPT but its civilian nuclear programme of enrichment of Uranium is raising suspicion in America and Israel. Does we in india donot know something? Can civilian enrichment cycle be used for nukes covertly? Or it has something to do with Iran having some untapped uranium mines or Gas reserves which is known only to Americans.Americans only bother for human rights violations of Uranium rich countries like Myanmar,Zimbawe and Chad. For what ever reason it is in interest of India to play honest broker between Iran and Israel.Ignore America and concentrate on Iran/Israel relations. This should be our first priority. This can be achieved only if we purge our foreign office of moles working for American interests as their children are studying there.We require Foreign service personnel who think of INDIAN NATIONAL INTEREST ALONE.
With regard to China, we have to be very careful about how we deal with this emerging super power. It is our neighbour and has special relationship with Pakistan. Vietnam is our friend but we lost Northkorean friendship by not supporting its nukes due to Japan. China has effectively neutralised our common neighbours like Myanmar,Nepal,Bhutan. We have already given away our Tibet card due to Kashmir and dependency on Russian veto. The recent recession in America is going to affect China in a significant way than our elite IT people.Our stocks going down will not cause a riot.But significant Chinese population is dependent on exports to west for their daily bread and this global meltdown will affect them significantly and a small war with India in Arunachal will give them some respite . It is here we have to be very careful and deter adventurism on their part by enhancing our AIR FORCE PUNISHING CAPABILITIES along with our missiles. Pakistan is saying that it likes to be Israel of China!! It is stealing American top of the line weapon systems including helmets,night vision goggles,fighter aircraft systems,ECM systems etc and sending them to China for duplication and reverse engineering.The bullet proof vests ,night vision goggles worn by mumbai terrorists compare with the best on offer from NATO while our ATS,NSG etc where wearing very heavy vests and didnot have night fighting capability or confident of their night capability against the terrorists holed up after OSCAR force debriefing.
Afghanistan and pakhtoons.It is the only country which voted against the creation of Pakistan in UN in 1947.It is contemptuous of Durrand line.Pakistan dreads Afghanistan more than even India.Taliban is the only line of defence whether Americans like it or not.They will not be here in another 4 or 5 years.The recent burning of 160 trucks of NATO carryingHumvees and driving the captured Humvee should have shown the Americans that it is not a Jehadi operation but a special unit of privatised terrorists who are drawn from Pakistani armed forces.These units are disbanded once the operation like that of Mumbai is over to leave no trace. We are being bombarded with write ups by SEMINARISTS in pay of western endowments that it is in India's interest America wins in Afghanistan!!!Gulbudin Heketmayer, Haqqani brothers and even Karzai brothers were ISI assets. If Americans leave as in Iraq, it is the India friendly Northern alliance which will come to power after a civil war for which everyone is preparing.Americans areinterested only in the poppy trade. To protect it they will even fight the Pakistani army(so called major non/NATO ALLY) in North wazirstan and FATA which will suit India.
So UPA government should abolish Art 370. The Valley Kashmiries always wanted independence including the ruling Hindu monarchs. They will do the hartals as usual.They donot like democracy under Zardari. They will prefer Musharaff but he is not there.Anyhow they donot believe in democracy as jehadies everywhere.It is the uneducated ordinary Kashmiri who wants democracy as our poor in India.They have repeatedly shown their love for vote.We in India must face the consequences of this action as it will ensure our security in the long run. Our Air force and Navy should be on high alert as Pakistan can gain only by a surprise attack as in 1965 or 1971 and we must be ready for it.
Also just before our next Lok Sabha elections, there is going to be a terror strike(light and sound show as their media manager called it) whether Sonia Gandhi or UPA likes it or not.It is better to force the Pakistani army to show its hand now than in next year.Abolition of Art 370 will ensure that. Hanging convicted terrorist Afzal Guru can be a side show.